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  • #1703770
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    pommehomme
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    Joined: 03 Jan 2010
    Location: N/A
    Total posts: 888

    A consensus seems to be emerging amongst world economists that if the UK were to vote to leave the EU the result would be a disastrous loss of confidence in the UK by the world markets, with the result that the £ would plummet in value against world currencies – including the Euro. Apparently some economists are suggesting that it could fall as low as £1/0.50€. For those Brits in Europe whose income is paid in Euros, that shouldn’t matter. But for those whose income – particularly fixed incomes such as pensions – are paid in £ Sterling and then converted into Euros, the result will be devastating. Against a high of a £1/1.50€ exchange rate, this could mean those incomes are slashed by two thirds. For many, I suspect, the simple fact would be that in such circumstances they could not afford to live in France, on so low an effective income, and a return to the UK and its £ Sterling economy might be the only option.

    Looking on the brighter side, the corollary of this might be that if such people sell up in France, the buying power of their sale proceeds in Euros would be much better than at the current £/€ exchange rate. But would they be welcomed by a UK population who might, after they’ve not lived in the UK for so many years, view them as just another bunch of foreigners coming to the UK to sponge on the country’s benefit and health system? After all, amongst British residents, at least, immigration seems to be emerging as the real issue which will decide the referendum.

    Anyhow, this is just food for thought. No-one, not even the most eminent world economists, knows what really would happen to the £ if the UK votes to leave the EU. All I’d say, in conclusion, is that these economists are right, they’ll be no way back if the UK votes to leave the EU. Thus I’d urge all British ex-pats in France, registered to vote in the referendum, to think long and hard about the personal consequences to them before they put their cross on the ballot paper.

     

     


    • This topic was modified 14 Apr 2016 14:47 by  pommehomme.
    #1703774
    nifty
    nifty
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    Joined: 17 Nov 2007
    Location: SW France
    Total posts: 9999

    Do you realy think that the rich give a flying monkey’s ? Many who have their wealth in other than £’s are looking forward to buying plenty cheap.


    http://niftyone.wordpress.com/ 'Life is short, art long, opportunity fleeting, experience deceptive, judgement difficult'. Aphorisms Hippocrates
    #1703787
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    Clover
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    Joined: 31 Jul 2003
    Location: N/A
    Total posts: 8226

    The problem is that nothing much is selling in France, properties for sale have been for sale for years in many cases, some properties will never sell and some brits won’t realise they will never get back huge investments of cash they originally put into their properties here and  if a huge sudden glut of brit-owned properties came onto the market, who is going to buy them? Its all speculation and doom-mongering to say the least and people should not panic over something that may never happen or if it does, will have very little effect on their current lifestyles.


    #1703790
    Aardvark
    Aardvark
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    Joined: 27 May 2009
    Location: 22
    Total posts: 2457

    Generally speaking, whatever happens, some rich bods further up the food chain will make money out of it.

    For me, if Sterling goes belly up I’ll be in very deep poo.  If my pension wouldn’t feed and house me in La Belle France, UK wouldn’t even be a consideration.  Maybe India.  At least I’d be able to get a decent curry.


    #1703794
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    fittersmate
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    Joined: 08 Jun 2009
    Location: Brittany France dept 56
    Total posts: 1624

    The prediction of the pound falling to £1 = €0.50  is pure scaremongering-which “economist” is predicting that?


    #1703797
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    Chanceux
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    Joined: 17 Mar 2010
    Location: Picardie
    Total posts: 13130

    It would not surprise me inasmuch as to me its within its “normal” range that I have lived with for the last decade.

    what is scaremongering or just fantasy is the following.

    Against a high of a £1/1.50€ exchange rate, this could mean those incomes are slashed by two thirds. For many, I suspect, the simple fact would be that in such circumstances they could not afford to live in France, on so low an effective income, and a return to the UK and its £ Sterling economy might be the only option.

    The exchange rate has never been that high during the last 12 years maybe a lot longer, during that time I saw the rate drop from the €1.48 that I bought at to a low of €1.03, I survived and so did to my knowledge all the others, not one person that I knew returned because of the falling exchange rate and everybody that I knew then has returned, in fact they all were far better off because of the fall in the rate.

    Against the last 10 years the value of the £ still seems very high to me, it has only been above the current figure for a very brief period.


    #1703845
    vic evans
    vic evans
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    Joined: 25 Apr 2015
    Location: Brittany 29
    Total posts: 4066

    From memory the pound/euro rate on the EU formation was about 1.42. We bought here in 2002 & deposited money in AV’s at about 1.567. All of my income is in sterling  & the lowest I have bought at was 1.15. If the rate dropped to 0.5 I’d gladly sell my house & everything else  here at a euro loss, cash in my AV’s ,change the lot for pounds & push off to pastures new with a shed load of quids, but of course that ain’t gonna happen. We’ll all know more after the referendum but until that time let the doomsayers do their worst. I’ve always been my  philosophy that if you can’t influence things, don’t worry about ’em ’till they happen ’cos the likelyhood is they won’t. Bring it on whatever it is. B-)


    The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.

    #1703855
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    Chanceux
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    Joined: 17 Mar 2010
    Location: Picardie
    Total posts: 13130

    I have just realised that I misread the OP as saying £1 = €1.05 not 50cts.

    By George if that were to happen I would return as a very rich man if I chose to do so.

    I doubt that I would though.


    #1703857
    vic evans
    vic evans
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    Joined: 25 Apr 2015
    Location: Brittany 29
    Total posts: 4066

    I have just realised that I misread the OP as saying £1 = €1.05 not 50cts

    I thought you had but bearing in mind our previous altercations on the subject I thought it politic not to mention it :-)


    The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.

    #1703859
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    pommehomme
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    Joined: 03 Jan 2010
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    Total posts: 888

    But you can influence things, Vic, assuming that you have a vote in the forthcoming referendum. That’s what voting in a democratic society is all about.

    I don’t ask anyone to share my views. All I ask is that everyone who has a vote in the referendum think seriously and carefully about the consequences to them of either voting to stay in or to leave the EU and then to cast their vote according to the reasoned conclusion to which they have come.

    My greatest fear is that a significant number of people seem to have proposing to vote without careful prior consideration. They seem to have a ‘knee jerk’ approach to the issue. Too often I hear people saying that:

    ‘if we’re out of the EU all those foreigners will be sent home’

    or that:

    ‘if we’re not in the EU it won’t have any influence over British life’.

    My reaction to such remarks is to say:

    ‘do you honestly think that the UK will send home those EU citizens who have become established in the UK, any more than France will send you home after you’ve lived in that country for years?’

    or that:

    ‘assuming you believe that the UK still will want to trade with EU countries on tariff free terms, do you honestly think that the EU will grant the UK terms more favourable than those that Norway and Switzerland have to accept, which include freedom of movement for EU citizens?’

    To vote ‘out’ is a leap of faith or, perhaps more accurately, a leap in the darkness without any idea of what the landing zone will be like. What the UK could achieve and what lives UK citizens might have, outside the EU, is unknown. Therefore some might say – better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know! The EU is not perfect. But within it at least we know what life entails and Britain is in a position to influence – and maybe change – its future for the better (including, some might say, for the better of the UK). That’s why I’ll be voting for the UK to stay in the EU.


    • This reply was modified 14 Apr 2016 19:40 by  pommehomme.
    #1703860
    knurt
    knurt
    Blocked
    Joined: 09 Mar 2010
    Location: United Kingdom mostly and 85 when I can. Better now?
    Total posts: 364

    I’m holding out for £1 = €0.05 not 50cts then I would be seriously rich, or perhaps an even more ludicrous exchange rate plucked from empty air.


    Oh dear

    #1703863
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    pommehomme
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    Joined: 03 Jan 2010
    Location: N/A
    Total posts: 888

    I must assume that certain of those posting here are rich in French assets and don’t have a fixed income paid in £ Sterling!


    #1703864
    vic evans
    vic evans
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    Joined: 25 Apr 2015
    Location: Brittany 29
    Total posts: 4066

    I must assume that certain of those posting here are rich in French assets and don’t have a fixed income paid in £ Sterling!

    <hr />

    Why? :unsure:


    The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.

    #1703865
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    Clover
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    Joined: 31 Jul 2003
    Location: N/A
    Total posts: 8226

    I’ve been resident here for 22years so cannot vote and no,not rich nor have any sterling income which is why I am not too bothered. Obviously if I could vote, it would be to remain in.Think too many racist ignoramus inthe UK have no real idea what its all about and think its only to do with getting Freddie foreigner out or stopping him coming in.


    #1703869
    vic evans
    vic evans
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    Joined: 25 Apr 2015
    Location: Brittany 29
    Total posts: 4066

    But you can influence things, Vic, assuming that you have a vote in the forthcoming referendum. That’s what voting in a democratic society is all about.

    I’ve got a vote & will excercise my right to do so & I don’t really think my one vote will influence things although I do accept the fact that thousands like me can.

    Being totally apolitic ex engineer I don’t really understand the pros & conns of in or out but given I’m a selfish old SOB I’ll probably be voting to maintain the status quo I’ve come to enjoy & I’ll cross whatever bridge is put in my way after the vote if & when it happens. I’ve been round the block a few times & if I’ve learnt nothing else the one thing I do know is that nobody else will ever give a stuff about me & mine so the only person I can rely on is me.

    My answer to the rest of your, I’m sure, well meaning questions is ” I Dunno!” I’m not clever enough to form an opinion on the dearth of accurate information available on this fiasco so in the meantime I’ll continue to hedge my bets B-)


    The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.

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