Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 215 total)
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  • #1781189
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    lindal1000
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    Joined: 09 Jun 2011
    Location: france
    Total posts: 4844

    I suppose the question for potential Conservative voters is ‘is leaving the EU by a hard brexit more important than your pension, social care for older people (and social care is not just paying someone to do your shopping, it is anything other than direct medical interventions, so someone to help you dress, to help you wash, bath and get on and off the toilet is social care), healthcare and having enough people in UK to do those jobs in the first place. Mrs M must feel very confident about her majority if she feels she can ignore the concerns of some of her core supporters. Somehow I think the rights of ex pats living in the EU are not even important enough to be on her radar.


    #1781204
    andy72
    andy72
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    Joined: 26 Oct 2008
    Location: Charente and NOT Milton Keynes
    Total posts: 7939

    Fortunately we have the EU batting for us even if our own Government wants to abandon us. I note May says that failure to get a good deal would be a disaster for “working people” in the UK and that the UK will still pay into the EU after Brexit in order to maintain “continued access and participation” in certain areas. The EU wil insist that Brits in the EU and EU citizens in the U.K. continue with acquired rights which means no good deal for the UK unless the UK honors citizens rights. Abandoning pensioners is one thing but the one thing the Tories will never do is  abandon their sponsors, if their sponsors want virtual EU membership under the label of Brexit then that is what May will give them.


    Starve the troll

    #1781229
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    largewhite
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    Joined: 16 Feb 2010
    Location: marval, 87440
    Total posts: 789

    Ipsos mori, didn’t they forecast a remain vote last June?


    largewhite

    #1781231
    neville
    neville
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    Joined: 19 Nov 2006
    Location: Was 24 Near Sarlat, now Lincoln for a while
    Total posts: 2722

    OK, I’m not really allowed to have an opinion as I’m a mod.
    But here we go and only once.
    What you all call Brexit will have no effect at all on the general population.

    Oh and as aside, as quite an old geezer it does not matter what political party is in power everything is exactly the same.

    Neville


    • This reply was modified 18 May 2017 23:52 by  neville.
    #1781235
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    lindal1000
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    Joined: 09 Jun 2011
    Location: france
    Total posts: 4844

    I was discussing this with my sister and her husband a few weeks ago who are of the same opinion, in that they think brexit won’t affect them. The comment was ‘well, if we had to pay out and £150  a month for things I doubt it would change our lives’. I’m sure they’re right..they will still buy their BMWs and Volkswagens even if they cost a bit more. However if you are on a zero hours minimum wage contract, or a nurse living in London, then £150 a month is probably the difference between whether you can afford to eat or not. My brother in law’s job is also dependent, at the moment on continued free trade with Europe. I don’t know what would happen to it after brexit..maybe they will continue in a different way, or maybe they won’t, but he seems to be in a bit of denial about the threat..to the extent that they have just remortgaged to take on an even bigger house. They are both of an age where, should redundancy happen their chances of getting similar paying work are not high. There’s thinking positively and taking risks and then there’s shutting your eyes, crossing your fingers and hoping the worst won’t happen.

    Brexit or not, the Conservative plan to take the value of an older person’s home into account when assessing for social care will affect plenty of people. Yes they won’t have to sell their house but they will have remortgage or enter into some dubious equity release scheme. Now it wouldn’t bother me as I don’t have kids so my plan is to spend every penny, but those Tory voters who were banking on helping their grandkids through University or helping them with their first home purchase may feel very differently.

    Looking at the manifestos I’m less worried about brexit (all three main parties have committed to the process in some way) but more concerned about the other right wing policies that are being swept through on the back of it. The election is not just about brexit but Theresa May is hoping to make it that.

     


    • This reply was modified 19 May 2017 06:55 by  lindal1000.
    #1781240
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    plog
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    Joined: 07 Apr 2008
    Location: 09
    Total posts: 1769

    “The comment was ‘well, if we had to pay out and £150  a month for things I doubt it would change our lives’. I’m sure they’re right..they will still buy their BMWs and Volkswagens even if they cost a bit more.”

     

    It ( obviously) depends on what effect Brexit has on the value of the pound verses both the dollar and the euro…and at the moment nobody knows..

     

    “My brother in law’s job is also dependent, at the moment on continued free trade with Europe. I don’t know what would happen to it after brexit..maybe they will continue in a different way, or maybe they won’t, but he seems to be in a bit of denial about the threat”

    I would agree that anyone that’s going to be potentially working cross border with the EU or working in the UK for a company that does a lot of it’s trade cross border with the EU needs to be a bit careful at the moment. One of our previously more pro Brexit family members who works in such an industry (telecomms, EU parent company) has recently toned down the rhetoric and now seems less confident his job won’t be effected……

    Ultimately we will all just have to wait and see, but I suspect everybody will feel the effects to some degree..


    • This reply was modified 19 May 2017 09:24 by  plog.
    #1781242
    andy72
    andy72
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    Joined: 26 Oct 2008
    Location: Charente and NOT Milton Keynes
    Total posts: 7939

    Ipsos mori, didn’t they forecast a remain vote last June?

    <hr />

    largewhite

    They got the result wrong by a couple of % points. The Brexit result was within confidence limits for most polls. Are you suggesting that most Brexit voters voted Brexit knowing that it would make them worse off? Try this newer one that suggests 80% of people in the UK are concerned over rising prices.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/19/price-rises-caused-brexit-big-worry-uk-consumers-mintel-survey

    How long before Brexit voters start to wish for the good old days of stable but not strong prices that existed before June last year?

     


    Starve the troll

    #1781243
    andy72
    andy72
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    Joined: 26 Oct 2008
    Location: Charente and NOT Milton Keynes
    Total posts: 7939

    OK, I’m not really allowed to have an opinion as I’m a mod. But here we go and only once. What you all call Brexit will have no effect at all on the general population. Oh and as aside, as quite an old geezer it does not matter what political party is in power everything is exactly the same. Neville

    <hr />

    Please help us to help you, remember to put your department number & nearest town on your profile. Thank you.

    It already is affecting the general population who are now finding out that their pay rises are not keeping up with rising prices. Before the Brexit vote they were. Inflation is just the start, once jobs start to be lost and taxes/national insurance rates  go up then the general population are going to be seriously affected. Someone has to pay for Brexit and you can bet it won’t be the politicians and media billionaires who conned 17 million into voting for it.


    Starve the troll

    #1781246
    CelticRambler
    CelticRambler
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    Joined: 01 Apr 2008
    Location: Good question. What day is it?
    Total posts: 6004

    While I don’t entirely agree with Neville’s “no effect” – because such a significant change in a nation’s relationship with the rest of the world is bound to have an effect – it’s going to be very hard to separate the medium- and long-term fallout directly due to Brexit from other global factors. It’ll be exactly like the French (and others) complaining that the introduction of the Euro caused prices to jump. No: prices were rising anyway, and the rise in the ten years before the introduction of the Euro continued without a blip in the ten years after. So over the next ten years the UK will suffer job losses, and attract inward investment, and experience higher prices, and see bubbles pop, and those who want to attribute these to Brexit – for better or worse – will find statistics to back up their pre-determined opinions.


    #1781256
    andy72
    andy72
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    Joined: 26 Oct 2008
    Location: Charente and NOT Milton Keynes
    Total posts: 7939

    CR, it is what happens over the short term that will focus the minds of people. I suspect that May knows that it will be easier to soften her position on Brexit if she can point out to people that by doing so the value of Sterling will probably rise, inflation will fall and jobs be  saved. The immigration debate will IMO take a back seat to concerns over living standards in the coming years. Interesting that the message of lowering immigration to the tens of thousands has been downgraded to an “aspiration” by the Tories. They know it isn’t going to happen but they need to keep the Ukippers onside….for now.


    Starve the troll

    #1781288
    nifty
    nifty
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    Joined: 17 Nov 2007
    Location: SW France
    Total posts: 9999

    Less chance of any sort of stability while the likes of NF are given air time.


    http://niftyone.wordpress.com/ 'Life is short, art long, opportunity fleeting, experience deceptive, judgement difficult'. Aphorisms Hippocrates
    #1781348
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    largewhite
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    Joined: 16 Feb 2010
    Location: marval, 87440
    Total posts: 789

    So ipsos  moray not really a reliable source then. Perhaps you should be quoting from people who[quote quote=1781243]politicians and media billionaires who conned 17 million into voting for it.

    can get things right.

    A mintel survey posted in the guardian is nothing to bank on.

    I think that the majority of voters are open minded about the effect of brexit trade and most I have spoken to admit that it is a small price to pay to leave the undemocratic monstrosity which you all cherish so much that is now calling itself a state.

    I wonder what was blamed for price increases before the brexit vote, or perhaps there were no such things as price rises. Wake up, its heads out of the sand time, there have always been price rises.

     


    largewhite

    #1781350
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    largewhite
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    Joined: 16 Feb 2010
    Location: marval, 87440
    Total posts: 789

    Stability as in “under the EU thumb” perhaps?

    Love him or hate him he is the most influential politician of a lifetime.


    largewhite

    #1781354
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    lindal1000
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    Joined: 09 Jun 2011
    Location: france
    Total posts: 4844

    So ipsos moray not really a reliable source then. Perhaps you should be quoting from people who[quote quote=1781243]politicians and media billionaires who conned 17 million into voting for it.

    can get things right. A mintel survey posted in the guardian is nothing to bank on. I think that the majority of voters are open minded about the effect of brexit trade and most I have spoken to admit that it is a small price to pay to leave the undemocratic monstrosity which you all cherish so much that is now calling itself a state. I wonder what was blamed for price increases before the brexit vote, or perhaps there were no such things as price rises. Wake up, its heads out of the sand time, there have always been price rises.

    <hr />

    largewhite

    8

    I think you’re right to say that most people who voted leave don’t seem to care about the potential negative effects of brexit because they prefer to hang on to the belief that all the bad things in life are the fault of the EU. We can only wait and see. Of course some of the bad things in the future won’t be the fault of brexit either but because people seem happy to vote in a vile government with a manifesto that penalizes the elderly, sick, disabled, poor, families where one partner is not British,  encourages blood sports, no regard for the environment, wants to introduce laws to control how people use social media, and has no plans to do anything that remotely upsets their rich friends (and they won’t even debate it publicly). One of my friends compared it to the people of Turkey voting for Ergodan, where people effectively voted to end democracy in their country. Be interesting to see who people turn on when they can’t blame the EU.


    #1781648
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    pommehomme
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    Joined: 03 Jan 2010
    Location: N/A
    Total posts: 888

    In answer to your question, lindal1000, I fear that it will be those who are perceived as ‘immigrants’, albeit that they don’t come from EU countries – namely those who don’t speak like them; whose skin is not the same colour as theirs; who profess a religion different to that to which they pay lip service; whose culture is different from theirs; and whose parents, grandparents or great grandparents weren’t born in the UK. Already right wing nationalism seems to have achieved social acceptability in the UK. When things there start to go seriously pear shaped, the ‘immigrants’ will be the most convenient scapegoats. Does this ring any historical bells?


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